Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: D-Backs and Braves

The start of the 2009 MLB campaign is nearly here, so it’s time to shift into summer mode and start focusing on my favorite sport. I’ll have what will hopefully be some very solid baseball info nearly every day, some of it gaming-oriented, some geared to fantasy baseball and lots of general observations.

Over the next several days, I’ll be zeroing in on individual teams and their projections for the upcoming season. For those of you looking to bet the MLB win totals, I think you’ll be able to pick up some fairly clear opinions here.

Let’s start with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs managed to forge a winning record in 2008, and I would look for moderate improvement this season. The NL West looks like a two-team race between the Snakes and the Dodgers, and while I give the edge to LA, it’s no upset if Arizona winds up on top.

The strength of this team is the top of their rotation with Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. That’s as potent a duo as you’ll find anywhere, and it more than compensates for the potential weakness on the back end. Jon Garland and Doug Davis can eat up innings, but neither is anything more than .500, high 4 ERA at this point.

The difference maker figures to be Max Scherzer, who has a chance to be a dynamic No. 5 if he stays healthy. Scherzer has monster heat and if he’s got his command, he’ll be a handful for opposing hitters. But the D-Backs will have to be careful with Scherzer and I would not think he’ll log more than 160 IP even if he takes his regular starts all season.

The bullpen looks okay, but by no means outstanding. Yusmeiro Petit is the long man and he’ll be a spot starter as well. Chad Qualls is now the closer, and while he’s been a very solid setup guy, it remains to be seen if he can shut the door in the ninth inning on a regular basis.

Much may depend on the health of Jon Rauch as he teams with Tony Pena for the seventh and eighth innings. I can’t expect much from Flash Gordon at this point, and I really don’t know why the D-Backs let Juan Cruz get away.

The lineup has loads of questions. Improvement is being counted on for several young players heading into their prime. Stephen Drew, Justin Upton and Chris Young all have big time talent, and if they progress the way management hopes, this offense could be outstanding.

Conor Jackson lacks power for his position, but he’s a solid hitter. Mark Reynolds is the big power threat. Chad Tracy can still deliver decent stats if he can stay in the lineup, and old pro Tony Clark can still pack the occasional wallop off the bench.

Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero are an adequate combo behind the plate. No one knows what to expect from Eric Byrnes trying to come back from a really bad hamstring injury.

Felipe Lopez could be a huge key. He’s taking over at 2B from Orlando Hudson. No way can Lopez replace the leadership and defense of Hudson. But Lopez showed signs of regaining his offensive form last season, and if he maintain that momentum, he becomes a potential catalyst at the top of the order.

This is a good team in a bad division, so I have little doubt that Arizona will be a playoff contender. If the high ceiling young position players get rolling and Scherzer emerges at the back of the rotation, I would not rule out 90+ wins.

But I’ll take the conservative approach with my projection and I’ll tab the Diamondbacks for about 87 wins and second place in the NL West, with a good chance to make the playoffs as a wild card.

The Atlanta Braves suffered through a miserable 2008 campaign and won only 72 games. They stand to be among the most improved teams in the game this season. Everything went wrong for the Braves last year, so they figure to be better just on the luck factor. But beyond that, I like the look of this team and I believe they will, at the very least, be in good position to return to the right side of .500.

The starting rotation should be good. Derek Lowe may not be the prototypical ace, but there’s nothing to suggest Lowe won’t be his usual reliable self.

I like the Javier Vazquez pickup. I see Vazquez as one of those guys who just could not mesh with Ozzie Guillen’s high pressure style and I would look for the talented Vazquez to flourish working with Bobby Cox. Vazquez will never be the stud many thought he would be years ago, but there’s no reason he can’t go out there every fifth day and win 15 games.

Jair Jurrjens should be a solid No. 3 and Kenshin Kawakami projects as an ideal No. 4.

The No. 5 spot is interesting. Jorge Campillo was a revelation last season, Charlie Morton had his moments, Tom Glavine is on hand to finish off his Hall of Fame career and could grab this role. Jo Jo Reyes is in the mix as well. And, at some point, Tommy Hanson will get his shot and he’s got a chance to be a big time star. This is a very deep rotation and it should be a definite asset for the Braves.

The bullpen is a huge question mark. Closer Mike Gonzalez will be setup by Rafael Soriano and Manny Acosta, with Peter Moylan and Boone Logan in middle relief. Logan could also be a lefty specialist at times.

The rest of the pen is unattractive, and there are going to be worries at all times about the long term health of Gonzalez and Soriano. The pen is clearly a worry spot for the Braves.

The offense is sorely lacking power and that figures to be what keeps this team out of the playoffs. There’s really not that much speed, either, so the Braves look like a team that will struggle to put up crooked numbers.

Chipper Jones is awesome and Brian McCann is a tremendous offensive catcher, but the rest of the lineup is really spotty. Kelly Johnson has the potential to be a producer at the top of the order, and Yunel Escobar is an ideal No. 2. Jones and McCann will almost certainly put up good numbers in the 3-4 holes. But then what?

The rest of the lineup looks like Jeff Francouer, Casey Kotchman, Garrett Anderson and Gregor Blanco and that’s not going to scare anyone. Francouer was awful last season, Kotchman has way too little power for a corner infielder, Anderson is still a pro hitter but no longer a great producer. Blanco or Josh Anderson might be okay in the No. 8 hole as they can run, but neither is a great hitter.

This is also a team that might be less than stellar defensively, particularly in the pasture.

Bobby Cox manages a 162-game schedule about as well as anyone, and there’s no question the Braves should be substantially improved. But the lack of sock and the bullpen questions keep me from projecting the Braves as a playoff contender.

That said, I’d be surprised if they didn’t at least get back to +.500. I’ll put Atlanta third in the NL East and project them for 83 wins.