Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: Cubs and White Sox

Big League Baseball ‘09 previews continue today with a look at the two Windy City entries.

The Chicago Cubs were the class of the NL Central in 2008, and seemed poised to get to the World Series for an opportunity at ending a century of frustration. Instead, it was just another brutal ending for their eternally faithful fans, as the Cubbies meekly bowed out against the Dodgers and extended the most storied streak of failure in all of sports.

The good news is the team is still very well positioned to make another run, so there’s at least lots of reason for continued optimism at the friendly confines.

There’s a good chance the Cubs will be even better offensively than they were a season ago. There’s not a single soft spot in the projected everyday lineup. Alfonso Soriano may not be the ideal lead-off hitter in terms of his approach, but I can’t see what’s wrong with a .350 OBP, big power and plenty of speed out of the top perch.

Derrek Lee didn’t hit for much power last season, but it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see him get back to the 25 HR neighborhood. Aramis Ramirez is a virtual lock for 25-30 long balls and somewhere around 100 RBI. Geo Soto established himself as a legit star behind the plate and hasn’t topped out yet.

If the Cubs can find a way to get 120 games out of Milton Bradley, he’ll be a big asset offensively. Kosuke Fukudome should put up better numbers in his second season and the keystone tandem of Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot is adequate. Micah Hoffpauir is going to force his way into his share of AB, and I like guys like Aaron Miles and Reed Johnson as part-timers.

The pitching should be rock solid. Carlos Zambrano looks as though he may be declining a bit, but I’m of the belief that Ryan Dempster’s 2008 was not as much of a fluke as many seem to believe. Ted Lilly is an asset and Rich Harden, while always a huge health risk, can still flat out dominate in six inning stretches when he’s right.

The No. 5 slot will likely go to Sean Marshall, who’s having a good spring and he’s certainly good enough to produce a .500 record at the end of the rotation.

Carlos Marmol is now the closer and we’ll have to see how he adapts to being the full time ninth inning guy. His stuff is pure filth, so all that’s up in the air is the ability to not get fatigued mentally or physically.

Kevin Gregg is a decent enough insurance policy. Jeff Samardzija opened eyes last season, but right now he’s mostly a one-trick pony and the Cubs would apparently prefer to make him a starter, which means he needs innings at AAA. The rest of bullpen is populated by average arms, but they do have lots of experience.

The bad news for the Cubs is that their window of opportunity is going to start closing soon. This team is built for right now, and there’s really not a great deal on the farm right now. I also see the Cubs being better constructed for the regular season than the post season.

I think they’re still good enough to win the NL Central, although I’d be surprised if they win 97 games again this season. But 90 wins will be good enough for the top spot in the sector and I’d be surprised to see the Cubs not garnering another playoff spot this season.

The Chicago White Sox won the AL Central in ‘08, but I see them struggling this season, and the Pale Hose could well be a first to worst entry in ‘09.

Simply stated, the White Sox are going to have to rely on the three-run homer this year, and that’s not exactly a recipe for success. The projected everyday lineup is unlikely to produce a single .300 hitter, and while there’s plenty of power, I just can’t see enough guys being on-base regularly enough to produce those consistent scoring opportunities.

Carlos Quentin had a huge breakout in ‘08, but I am not convinced yet that he’s an elite player. Alexei Ramirez might have the highest ceiling on the team, but he’s still raw and is moving to a new position. Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye are all getting on in years, and while they’re likely good for about 75 homers combined, they’re also likely to hit a collective .260.

Josh Fields is now the the everyday 3B and he’s another potential 30 HR contributor, but he’ll also be hard pressed to hit .250. Centerfield and second base are probable weak spots, although the rapid progress of 2008 top draft pick Gordon Beckham may alleviate one of those concerns in short order.

AJ Pierzynski will still get the bulk of the innings behind the dish, and he’s still serviceable but is yet another vet who figures to be descending at this point.

There’s no ace among the starting pitchers. John Danks is the most likely to step forward and he was pretty impressive last season. Gavin Floyd is more suited for the back end of the rotation. Mark Buehrle is a great innings eater and is the most reliable of the starters at this point, but Buehrle is no more than big league average at this juncture.

I think it would be nothing short of a miracle if the Chisox get production out of Jose Contreras and/or Bartolo Colon at this point.

At least the bullpen looks good. Bobby Jenks has lost some velocity but remains effective, and I like the power combo of Octavio Dotel and Matt Thornton as setup specialists. Add in Scott Linebrink and that’s a pretty nifty quartet on hand to protect late inning leads.

It’s pretty apparent I’m not very impressed with this edition of the White Sox. Ozzie Guillen is a great skipper, but his one flaw is a tendency to blow up when things don’t go well and I wonder about his ability to hold it together this season if things aren’t sailing smoothly.

It looks to me like a long season for President Obama’s favorite baseball team, and I have the White Sox dropping with a thud in 2009. My projection is just 75 wins and a very good possibility of a last place finish in the AL Central.