Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: Reds and Indians

Today’s previews are on the two Buckeye State entries, the Reds and Indians.

The Cincinnati Reds are garnering lots of support as one of this year’s surprise teams. Well, first of all, it’s not exactly a surprise if it’s being talked about by so many analysts. Secondly, I’m not seeing why the Reds are suddenly about to break through and emerge as contenders.

Yes, they’re getting better. But there are still some serious holes on this team, along with plenty of question marks.

Let’s start with the potential strengths. I will agree wholeheartedly that the rotation has a chance to be very strong. I was touting Edinson Volquez before just about anyone and I drafted him on just about every one of my fantasy teams last season and obviously enjoyed the results.

Volquez has dynamite stuff and his changeup is exceptional. Volquez wore down in the second half last season, but with the added experience he should be strong all year this time around.

I also expect Johnny Cueto to do a better job of keeping the ball in the park and he’s a serious breakout candidate this year. Aaron Harang had an awful 2008 and should bounce back, Bronson Arroyo is an ideal fourth starter. The fifth spot is up in the air, although I would think it goes to Micah Owings.

The bullpen would seem to be OK. Francisco Cordero has declined a bit, but is still solid as long as he’s healthy. David Weathers is approaching 40 and 900 appearances but still grinds out mostly adequate efforts. Jared Burton and Bill Bray were solid last season and should be fine again.

The rest of the pen looks shaky, but the Reds should be reasonably effective in protecting leads.

I’m not as sold on the offense. Willy Taveras steals lots of bases, but he’s a poor lead-off hitter. I keep waiting for Edwin Encarnacion to fulfill his potential and deliver a complete campaign, but it hasn’t happened yet. Shortstop could be a problem again if Alex Gonzalez keeps getting hurt.

Ramon Hernandez has seen his power drop off the last couple years and he’s not getting any younger. I’m certainly not doubting that Brandon Phillips will have another good year, and I like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto as much as anyone. I’m also impressed with Chris Dickerson, who looks like a force in what will be the busier half of an apparent LF platoon.

The bench is OK as well, with guys like Jerry Hairston, Norris Hopper and Jeff Keppinger on hand.

One definite concern on this team would appear to be defense. There won’t exactly be a bevy of Gold Glove favorites manning the field in Cincinnati this season.

So yes, I do see the Reds trending positively and I think it’s entirely within the realm of possibility for Cincinnati to push .500 this season. But I just see too many question marks for them to go much higher.

I’ve got the Reds in a battle for third place in the NL Central and I’m pegging them for about 78 wins.

I generally have definite opinions formed on almost every team by this date. Mark down the Cleveland Indians as a huge exception to that rule.

The Indians are one gigantic question mark. One minute they look like the team to beat in the AL Central, the next they seem so unsettled that they could bring up the rear.

This team would appear to have a solid potential everyday lineup, yet there are some very serious question marks and the regular 1-9 seems unsettled.

The starting pitching is just as puzzling. They have the reigning Cy Young winner and could be outstanding. I can also envision the Tribe owning one of the weakest rotations in baseball.

Let’s start with the pitching. Cliff Lee was absolutely phenomenal last season. There’s no reason to speculate he won’t be rock solid again, although I think at least some regression from last year’s mind boggling numbers has to be expected.

Your guess is as good or better than mine as far as Fausto Carmona is concerned. Carmona was huge in 2007, but got blasted in the post season and appeared to be mentally fried last year. His control issues were ridiculous at times, and he’s still been uneven in that department this spring.

The 3-5 spots are now held by Carl Pavano, Anthony Reyes and Scott Lewis. I kind of like Lewis. I do not like Pavano or Reyes, and I’m convinced the back of the Cleveland rotation will be a rotation of several bodies throughout the season.

Aaron Laffey, Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, maybe a couple of others. Jake Westbrook will hopefully return around mid-season. But he’s off TJ surgery as well as another cut on his hip, so expecting Westbrook to be a key contributor this season is unlikely. Personally, I think Huff eventually emerges as the third best starter on this team. I’m not sure that’s a good thing.

I absolutely like the Cleveland bullpen. It’s outstanding. Kerry Wood might miss a week here and there if his back acts up. But as many experts speculated years ago, Wood’s max effort delivery is far better suited to short stints than starting and he was reborn last year closing for the Cubs. Now that he’s used to the role, Wood should be even better in ‘09 with his new team.

Rafael Perez is a superb lefty setup hurler and I’m pretty high on Jensen Lewis. Add in Joe Smith, Rafael Betacourt, Matt Herges, Masa Kobayashi and the Indians have no worries once the starting pitcher is done.

And that list doesn’t include Adam Miller, who’s going to be a major contributor if he can ever stop getting hurt. There’s additional depth with Juan Salas and Jonathan Meloan. This is a truly outstanding bullpen on paper.

The offense is in good hands at the top of the order with Grady Sizemore. Stealing Mark DeRosa from the Cubs makes the No. 2 spot solid. From there, it begins to get dicey.

I don’t know what to expect from Travis Hafner at this point. My guess is that it won’t be all that much, and my gut tells me his superb 2005-06 campaigns won’t ever be approached again. Victor Martinez gets a mulligan for last year, and if his elbow is sound, he’ll be fine offensively.

But the Indians should not have VMart behind the plate. Kelly Shoppach is the better option and I’d much rather see Martinez at 1B, with Ryan Garko as the part timer. Garko could also be part of a platoon with Hafner, with Martinez serving as the DH against lefties.

Jhonny Peralta is adequate at SS, although he’s not ever going to be the star many expected him to be. I’m fairly optimistic about the corner OF tandem of Ben Francisco and Shin-Soo Choo. Francisco won’t be a huge BA type, but he’s capable of a 20-20 and Choo could deliver similar numbers. I also see a more consistent effort from 2B Asdrubal Cabrera.

The bench is certainly serviceable, particularly given the fact that the Indians basically have ten starters for nine spots right now.

Two key components are on the way. Catcher Carlos Santana and OF Matt LaPorta are big time prospects. Fortunately, it doesn’t appear that rushing either player is necessary right now.

Picking a winner in the AL Central is extremely difficult. The Indians appear to be the consensus choice, but I’m going to look elsewhere. This team has been very shaky out of the gate under manager Eric Wedge and the major uncertainty in the rotation indicates to me they could dig themselves another hole in 2009.

I see the Indians being a bit of a disappointment and while I think they’ll manage to eke out a winning season, I’m just not buying them as a playoff team. 82 wins and third place in the AL Central is my best guess.