Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: Rockies and Tigers

Two-a-day previews continue today with a pair of teams that fell dramatically short of expectations in 2008. For one, there’s optimism that the new season will see a return to contention. For the other, things look mighty bleak once again.

Is it only one year ago that the Colorado Rockies were entering the season as defending National League champs? The Rockies put together one of the all-time great stretch runs to capture the 2007 NL pennant.

It’s now pretty apparent that surge represents one of the most amazing flukes in baseball history. The Rockies were back to their usual mediocre selves in 2008 and they figure to be even worse this time around.

There’s just very little to like on this team. They dealt their one big star, Matt Holliday, away during the offseason, and the collection of holdovers still on the scene is about as uninspiring as it gets.

Despite playing in what is still one of the best hitting parks in the game, the Rockies will be lucky to have two players reach 20 homers, and their pitching looks terrible.

Garrett Atkins is their best offensive performer at this juncture. Brad Hawpe is OK if healthy. Troy Tulowitzki figures to rebound from an awful 2007 campaign. Colorado has a pretty solid young catcher in Chris Iannetta.

The rest of the lineup is strictly patchwork. Todd Helton’s best years are now a distant memory. Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith are better suited to being fourth OF’s, but will likely start most of the season. Clint Barmes is barely average at 2B.

The bench holdovers are led by Ian Stewart, who has yet to live up to the hype and still swings and misses way too often. Carlos Gonzalez came over in the Holliday deal, and he’s also carrying the big prospect tag, but he was frequently over-matched in his big league maiden voyage.

Guys like Scott Podsednik and Jeff Baker are just roster fillers for the most part.

There is one young player to keep a close watch on, and that’s centerfielder Dexter Fowler. He’s yet to flash long ball power, but most scouts believe Fowler is a legit five-tool talent. He’s had a good spring and should probably be given a chance to play every day with the big club.

That likely means Fowler will head to Colorado Springs, as this organization generally manages to do just the opposite of what most analysts think they ought to do.

The pitching is below average right down the line. Ubaldo Jimenez has by far the most upside of the current crop and he could actually breakout this season. Aaron Cook is fairly reliable. Greg Smith showed occasional flashes last season in Oakland, but he’s now going to be pitching in far less friendly conditions.

Jason Marquis and Jorge De La Rosa project as the No. 4 and No. 5 starters. Opposing hitters are already dreaming about the possibilities against that pair.

The bullpen is not exactly overloaded with studs. Manuel Corpas was great in ‘07, but couldn’t come anywhere close to duplicating the effort last season. Huston Street is now on the scene, but he’s had injury issues and the reality is that he’s not a dominant closer.

The rest of the pen is dotted with pitchers who have fallen short of delivering on potential, or are nothing more than Quad-A types at this point. In other words, no Colorado lead will be safe at Coors Field.

Not only are the Rockies bad now, they have very little on the horizon. Fowler is the best of the position prospects, and there is hope that Jhouyls Chacin will develop into a genuine top of the rotation starter. But Chacin is only 20, and has yet to pitch above Hi-A, so he’s got a long road to travel. There’s very little to get excited about beyond that pair.

The truth is that the Rockies need to overhaul management and begin again. I don’t think the people are in place that can turn this organization into a winner, and there is zero question in my mind that the 2007 Rockies were among the luckiest teams ever to take the field.

Colorado will be hard pressed to win 70 games and will battle the hapless Padres to avoid the cellar in the dreadful lower region of the NL West.

The Detroit Tigers were a monster flop in 2008. The Tigers were among the favorites to win it all going into the season. Instead, they fielded a squad that couldn’t pitch, couldn’t win and couldn’t even beat out the Royals en route to a last place finish in the AL Central.

The 2009 Tigers have to be improved, right? Well, yeah, I guess so. But I still see all kinds of question marks on this team. I simply cannot agree with those who are labeling last season as an aberration and are now projecting Detroit as a good bet to win their division this season.

Let’s start with the pitching. Justin Verlander had a brutal season. He fell into some bad habits early and couldn’t get on track. But more importantly, his velocity dipped to the low 90’s at times last season.

I have not seen Verlander work this spring, but I’m hearing he’s still not back to his 2007 level in terms of his heat. That tells me it’s really questionable whether he can get back to ace status, and that’s something this staff desperately needs, as the rest of the starters aren’t much.

Jeremy Bonderman is coming back from surgery and was still throwing simulated games last week. Armando Galarraga was a huge surprise last year, but his peripherals indicate he’s likely to regress some this year.

Edwin Jackson is dynamite at times, but I no longer regard Jackson as anything more than a back of the rotation type. Nate Robertson is a long reliever masquerading as a starter.

Dontrelle Willis is toast. The Tigers spent the winter trying to refine his mechanics so that he might find the strike zone. In his most recent spring start, against minor leaguers, Willis abandoned the changes and went back to the old high leg kick, so it looks as though that experiment is finished.

The one pitcher who could positively impact the staff is Rick Porcello, who certainly looks like the real deal. But Porcello’s pro experience consists of 125 IP at Hi-A. It looks to me like the Tigers may have no choice but to accelerate Porcello and get him with the big club as quickly as possible.

The bullpen was a train wreck last season. I fail to see where it’s improved. Brandon Lyon will be the first of what figures to be a lengthy line of closers. Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya have each had way too many injury problems to be considered reliable.

Guys like Zach Miner, Clay Rapada, Bobby Seay and Freddy Dolsi are mediocre at best. Juan Rincon and Scott Williamson are getting by on whatever guile they may have, as neither has big league stuff anymore.

The Tigers best bet in the bullpen is another inexperienced minor leaguer. Ryan Perry is last year’s first round pick out of Arizona, and despite having just 14 professional innings under his belt, it’s my guess that he will inherit the closer’s throne in Detroit by mid-season.

The Tigers will at least be entertaining, as they can flat out rake. Curtis Granderson is a quality player who plays a terrific CF and is a decent lead-off hitter, despite not being a big BA type. Placido Polanco is the prototype for a No. 2 hitter. Miguel Cabrera is about as good as it gets and I think he may actually have found a position he can play at 1B.

Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen are getting up there in years, but they’re still productive. I think Guillen will benefit from a move to the OF. That’s a very strong 1-5. The back end of the order is a little shakier.

Gary Sheffield can’t be counted on as the DH and I would look for Marcus Thames to eventually take over. Gerald Laird takes over as the everyday catcher. He’s used to working with bad staffs, so won’t be a culture shock victim in Motown. But Laird’s shaky offense figures to dip as he leaves that hitter’s heaven in Texas.

Brandon Inge is a .240, 15 HR 3B. Sorry, but unless he’s Brooks Robinson on defense, which he’s not, that’s simply not good enough.

I don’t think the Tigers will be as hideous as they were a season ago, and I would expect them to vacate the AL Central cellar. But I also don’t think they’ll be any better than average. I’ll call it 81-81 and a middle of the pack divisional finish for Detroit.