Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: Marlins and Astros

Today’s previews are on a pair of teams that produced winning records in 2008. One looks like it might be better than projected again, the other would appear to be in major trouble.

The Florida Marlins have actually already scored their biggest win of the year. They’re finally going to get their new stadium after a protracted battle that at times looked like it would force the franchise to relocate.

But the-soon-to-be Miami Marlins are going to get their new home after all, which means they might be able to start signing some of their better veterans instead of constantly turning them over for prospects.

The Marlins have actually done a good job of maintaining respectability despite their financial issues.

Baseball Operations President Larry Beinfest has proven himself to be a terrific judge of young talent. Even though everyone knows he’s behind the eight ball since all of baseball knows he can’t retain most of his starts, he manages to keep winning deals. Just think what Beinfest might be able to accomplish if he’s operating on the same level as most of the other teams in the game.

Most of the preseason projections I’ve seen on the Marlins have them pegged for a big tumble in the NL East. I’m not so sure that will be the case.

The starting rotation has a chance to be pretty good. Ricky Nolasco had the breakout 2008 and I think he’s legit. Josh Johnson is finally back to good health and is a quality starter. Anibal Sanchez is now physically sound as well, and I see him as a decent mid-rotation performer.

I believe 2009 will be the year where Andrew Miller puts it together. He’s got all kinds of stuff, but just hasn’t tied it all together yet. If it works for Miller this season, the Marlins are going to have themselves one terrific young staff.

Chris Volstad is the No. 5 and while I don’t see him having a high ceiling, I think Volstad can maintain the last rotation spot adequately.

The Florida bullpen is less settled, but could be fine. Matt Lindstrom is a prototypical closer, but must stay healthy and prove he’s up to the challenge. Leo Nunez was a very good pickup from Kansas City and should take over the primary setup role. Renyel Pinto and Logan Kensing are okay, and Jose Ceda is an intriguing addition as well.

The offense is a little more questionable. Hanley Ramirez is an awesome talent, but he really needs to get comfortable as the No. 3 hitter rather than leading off. He’s clearly the key to the Marlins attack.

Florida has decided to go with Cameron Maybin at the top. Maybin has enormous potential, and while he’s still raw, I like this move as his ceiling is basically unlimited. Dan Uggla will swing and miss on a regular basis, but he’s also a good bet to bomb out 70 extra base hits.

The rest of the lineup is a bit spotty. Jorge Cantu will apparently divide his time between 3B and 1B and will mostly hit cleanup. Cantu doesn’t profile well as a No. 4 hitter and he could make it tough for Ramirez to see good pitches to hit.

Cody Ross is no star, but has good power and is probably a little underrated. Jeremy Hermida is getting close to carrying the bust tag and needs to get it rolling this season.

Dallas McPherson and Gaby Sanchez appear to be heading toward a two-position platoon that involves Cantu. McPherson has huge power, but his health history is ugly and he’s not going to hit for average. Sanchez has decent potential, but could struggle in his first extended big league tour of duty. John Baker is the best of a mediocre lot behind the plate.

I’m basing my reasonable optimism regarding the Marlins on the pitching, which has a chance to be very good. The offense will likely be average at best. If the pitching falters, this team will indeed be in trouble. But I like the arms quite a bit, and I’m therefore looking for the Marlins to finish right around .500. That’s likely not good for any better than fourth place in the rugged NL East, but it’s still far from being terrible.

Cecil Cooper is being mentioned as one of the managers on the hot seat as the new season begins.

Considering that Cooper somehow skippered the Houston Astros to 86 wins last season, Cooper ought to be as safe as any manager in the game. But unless Cooper performs another miracle this season, he figures to be the scapegoat for one of the worst organizations in the game.

There’s no reason for the Astros to be in their present predicament, and make no mistake, this team is in deep trouble. They’re offense is littered with aging veterans and is heading for a fall. The pitching staff looks like it could be horrible. And worst of all, there’s almost nothing on the way up thanks to the mindset of their owner, Drayton McClane.

I’m not a great believer in the small market bellyaching that’s used to explain poor results by too many franchises. This particularly goads me when it’s a tactic utilized by a team that’s not at all small market. The Astros qualify on that count in a big way.

Houston is not a small market not by any stretch of the imagination. Fact is, the Astros don’t seem to have a real problem competing for big stars every now and then. But they’ve ignored their farm system, which to me is inexcusable, and the result is that the Astros have almost nothing in the way of even middling prospects at this point.

As for the big club, they’ve still got Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. Hunter Pence is OK, but if he’s the star of the future, the eventual torchbearer for the franchise, that’s not exactly reason to get excited.

The rest of the roster is downright ugly. Miguel Tejada is on the decline. They got Pudge Rodriguez on the cheap to catch this year, but don’t be fooled by the WBC breakout, Rodriguez is a shell of what he once was.

Kaz Matsui, Geoff Blum and Michael Bourn as mostly everyday players is not a good thing. The best of the bench personnel is yet another aging performer and there’s little of note behind Darin Erstad.

The staff is a minefield. Oswalt is still a legit ace, and Wandy Rodriguez has enough talent to be pretty good, although he seems to be frequently injured. But Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler and Jose Capellan has a real shot to be be the worst 3-5 combo in the game.

Russ Ortiz is actually in the mix for a rotation spot, and so are Clay Hensley, Alberto Arias and Felipe Paulino. Arias might be the best of that lot and he’s not likely to break out anytime soon.

The bullpen isn’t any better. Jose Valverde is okay as the closer. But it looks like LaTroy Hawkins and Geoff Geary could be the primary setup guys, and that’s scary. Doug Brocail, Wesley Wright and a cast of nonentities will round out the staff.

The Astros are poised to take the biggest drop from last year of any team in the game. The only thing that might cushion their fall is the presence of the amazing Pirates in the same division. I’m calling for Houston to dip all the way to the mid-60’s in wins, and I see them as a strong ‘under’ play on the wins props that are available.