I have to say this has to be one of the most interesting Aprils we’ve had in Major League Baseball in quite some time. * Many of the projected superpowers have had trouble getting things going. * Many projected patsies have been contending, or even leading their divisions. * We have two new stadiums in the sport’s biggest city, and one of them may turn baseball into a circus. Like the New York Yankees franchise wasn’t already a circus! * We have many teams scrambling to hold their own while their pitching ace recovers on the Disabled List. We have others scrambling to hold their own because their ace is struggling and they can’t figure out what’s wrong! * The lack of elite pitching has led to many dramatic come-from-behind victories. No lead is safe! (So, be sure you know which teams have superior bullpens!) All of this bedlam has led to a lot of confusion here in Las Vegas. Sports bettors who used to win in April are having troubles because pitchers they relied on in the past are letting them down (or sitting in street clothes). Oddsmakers have misread so many teams from top to bottom that you can’t even believe they make lines for a living. But sportsbooks are still making money because the public misread things even worse!
Just in case you haven’t noticed, I’ve been more than a little bit rough on the Cleveland Indians lately. This apparently prompted a note from one of the regular readers of this blog. He wondered if I was going a little over the top in my criticism of the Indians organization due to my possibly being a frustrated fan of the team. OK, let’s clear that up right away. I’m a native New Englander, and literally a card carrying member of Red Sox Nation. In fact, in the interests of full disclosure, I will readily admit that I have never made a single wager against the Red Sox. Nor will I ever do so. The Sox are my one passion, and while I handicap them without bias, I have never been able to bring myself to actually make a wager against them. I bet the games I give out to my customers, with that one exception. Fact is, it’s cost me some money as I’m pretty good in terms of having a feel for when things might not go their way.
Sometimes it’s simply better to be lucky than good. That’s an important factor when analyzing pitchers. Isolate those who have been catching some good breaks, and it’s likely to garner an edge in determining hurlers who are likely to start heading in the other direction once their luck starts to turn. Back in the not so good old days, there were precious few stats widely available to help arrive at these conclusions. I found BB/K ratios to be about the most reliable factor, and I would primarily focus on pitchers whose numbers were varying widely from their norm. I still rely on these ratios, but thanks to some of the phenomenally in-depth statistics that are actually pretty easy to find these days, I’ve been able to expand my scope of analysis considerably. One of the new categories that I’ve found to be of immense help is known as BABIP. This is the batting average allowed by pitchers to opposing hitters on balls that are put into play.
Pardon the rant, but if there’s one thing that drives me nuts, it’s when teams with obvious needs refuse to promote high-end prospects who are absolutely ready and deserving of an opportunity to prove themselves in the show. I completely understand that in many cases, the reluctance to promote a player is strictly business. The longer a team can keep a prospect on the farm, the longer they can own him without worrying about arbitration. And it also may mean an extra year of service time until said player can opt for free agency. I’ll completely endorse this tactic when the team is a non-contender, or there’s no pressing need at the player’s position, or if the prospect is simply blocked by a capable veteran already at the major league level. That’s why I haven’t been at all critical of the Orioles letting Matt Wieters log a good portion of this season in the minors. Baltimore isn’t going to contend for anything right now and Wieters at least needs to prove he can handle AAA before moving up.
Two top prospects are likely to get into big league action this week. Phil Hughes is tearing it up in Scranton-Wilkes Barre and with the “injury” to Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees need another starting pitcher. Ian Kennedy has been equally impressive so far at AAA, but Hughes is the prospect with the much higher ceiling. Hughes should get the start on Tuesday at Detroit. There is absolutely no question about this kid’s stuff. He’s got top of the rotation talent. The key is in Hughes trusting his own stuff, which he did not do last year. He basically was trying to get by on just two pitches last season with the Yankees and wasn’t even commanding those very well. According to reports, Hughes is using his complete arsenal this year and while dominating International League hitters isn’t close to outclassing a lineup as potent as the one he’ll see Tuesday night, it’s still a very positive sign for a team that could use one right now. The flip side of the equation is that there’s no guarantee Hughes will flash the same impressive command as he returns to the show for a third trial. It’s important to note, however, that Hughes is still only 22 years old, so even another misstep should not be viewed as a disaster.
Just in case you haven’t heard, “Moneyball” is about to become a feature film. The book, authored by Michael Lewis, created quite a stir when it was published, with plenty of hot debate and widely varying opinions, not only about the book, but also about the concept itself. The book focused on Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane and his philosophy on how to build a contender while working under the constraints of a limited budget. A good deal of the writing concentrated on the tools vs. stats argument when it came to drafting. The one enduring memory of the commentary on the book was ESPN’s Joe Morgan making a complete fool of himself when he condemned the book, while also admitting he hadn’t read it. A definite Hall of Shame moment for the Hall of Fame player turned analyst. As for my views on the book and of the “Moneyball” concept itself, nothing has really changed much. I thought it was an interesting read, but it was also crystal clear that the author was completely sold on the argument by Beane. There were times that I felt I was reading a puff piece on the GM rather than an in-depth study of a very controversial and fascinating approach to building a big league roster and organization.
My only top baseball play won easily on Wednesday as good things continue to happen on the diamond. To cash-in with my winning picks, click here. The Florida Marlins still own the best record in baseball, but another surprise entry is now hot on their heels. That would be the Toronto Blue Jays, who pulled one out in extras on Wednesday, raising their record to 11-5. Small sample or not, this is very impressive when noting the fact that the Jays are minus most of their starting rotation, aren’t getting much offense from their two best offensive talents and have a closer who has looked terrible so far. There have been some immense early contributions from unexpected sources. You can take that in a coupe different directions. The glass half-full viewpoint would be that the Blue Jays are stamping themselves as a possibly huge surprise entry this season.
It’s possible we may be seeing a new entry as the worst franchise in any professional sport. The Washington Nationals are pretty amazing right now. Not only have they been phenomenally inept in the early going, the comedy of errors at the organizational level are absolutely Clipperesque. Basically, this outfit is baseball’s version of “The Gang That Couldn’t Shoot Straight”, and I’m not just talking about their play on the field. They’ve been racked by scandal upstairs, much of it centering around allegations of skimming by deposed GM Jim Bowden. Whether or not any of that stuff is true I have no way of knowing. But Bowden, along with Jose Rijo, were forced to resign in the wake of the discovery that a highly touted prospect was using an alias and was four years older than previously listed. The “Nots” have tied themselves to players with checkered pasts and character issues. They’ve drafted poorly, failed to develop quality prospects, and managed not to sign last year’s top draft choice. They have the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, and that means a shot at one of the most exciting prospects ever in San Diego State flame thrower Stephen Strasburg.
You know it’s going well when you’re winning games you should have lost. I had the Marlins on the runline both Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, they rallied to tie the game against the Nationals in the ninth inning and then tossed up a three-spot in the 11th inning to cover. On Sunday, they trailed by a run heading to the ninth and scored four runs to again get the money. That’s two wrong side winners, and I’ll be happy to take them. Make no mistake, I know that at some point I’ll lose a couple in similar fashion and I’ll swear to anyone within earshot that I’m cursed and can never catch a break. But right now, Lady Luck seems to be looking my way and I’m sure not about to argue with her. I’m up a ton to start the season and enjoying the ride! It’s not all luck, as I have a pretty good idea of what I’m doing. But getting a little help is always welcome. The new Yankee Stadium may well be an absolute launching pad, based on the early results. There is some speculation that once the old stadium is demolished, the winds off the Harlem River might not play the same in the new facility as they are right now, but there’s no question that there have been some real cheapies in the new park already, especially to right field.
I enjoyed another huge day on the diamond Thursday, and there’s just no question I’m in a zone that’s about as good as it gets right now. To cash in, buy my plays here. The San Francisco Giants get back home tonight following a disastrous road trip. They lost every game and were outscored 42-14 in the process. They are an exceedingly bad looking baseball team right now in every respect. Not only that, they’re lifeless. Maybe getting back to the Bay Area will liven them up, but it’s alarming to see a team this flat this early in the season. Part of the reason is Barry Zito. I’ll never knock Zito for signing what was one of the most ridiculous contracts ever. That’s all on the braintrust of the Giants, who jumped the gun and made Zito an offer that was far more than any other team apparently would have even considered. Fact is, Zito was already in decline when he left Oakland, and the Giants were evidently the only ones who missed it. Zito is now 21-33 with the Giants with an ERA that’s just plain unsightly. In my eyes, the Giants look like a team that knows they’re going to get beat every time he takes the mound.
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