The NCAA Baseball Tournament gets underway today, so here’s a preview of each of the 16 regionals. I’m keeping this brief, as I don’t feel like writing a novel on this. But rest assured, these are not wild guesses. I’ve done pretty well in this tourney the last couple of years, and I’m confident of doing so again this season. Before getting into the rundown, a quick thought on the job done by the selection committee. HORRIBLE! I vow never to again complain about the hoops committee, as at least they have a clue. These bozos had no consistent criteria. They evidently used the RPI at some points and completely ignored it at other times. Baylor, Oklahoma State and Southern Miss in ahead of Eastern Illinois, Missouri State and URI is awful. Cal State Fullerton as the second overall seed is impossible. How does a team finish five games out in their own conference and get a second overall seed? OK, that’s it for the rant, here’s the preview. Note that the No. 1 seed in each of the regionals has home-field advantage. Clemson should win their regional. Alabama lost its best player in the SEC Tourney and that probably dooms them here. As much as I disagree with Oklahoma State getting an invite, they are a very talented team and if their pitching comes around, they’re a legit dark horse. But I like Clemson to emerge and move on.
What a difference a year makes. The Tampa Bay Rays were one of the truly great stories in 2008. All those years of inept decision making upstairs and uninspired play on the field melted away as the Rays shocked the sports world with their first titles of any kind and a trip to the World Series. Things aren’t going nearly as well in 2009 for the Rays. We really shouldn’t be surprised by this turn of events. When teams take a giant step forward one season, there’s very frequently a drop the following year. One year, everyone stays healthy and all the pieces just seem to fall into place. The next season, the inevitable injuries start to pile up. And guys who had career campaigns find they’re unable to repeat that success the second time around. The Rays have all the symptoms of the overachiever that has to come back to earth. I don’t think there’s much question that there are some very talented players in this organization, so I’m not saying the Rays will be a one and done franchise that we won’t hear from again for several seasons. But if they did catch a little lightning in a bottle in 2008, they’re just getting rained upon in 2009.
It’s official. The one and only Matt Wieters will be making his big league debut on Friday night when the Orioles play host to the Tigers. Wieters has been garnering all kinds of attention ever since being drafted fifth overall in 2007. If he lives up to the hype, which he has an excellent chance of doing, the conversation down the road will be about how the four teams drafting ahead of the Orioles in ‘07 managed to misfire so badly. Just in case you’ve forgotten, David Price was the top pick in that draft, and he’s going to be a terrific big league pitcher. So you won’t hear me knocking the Rays for grabbing Price first overall, and he was clearly the guy almost everyone had rated as tops in that class at the time. The second and third picks were not reaches either, as the Royals tabbed Mike Moustakas while the Cubs chose Josh Vitters. Both 3B have loads of upside, but neither is close right now. Moustakas is having a solid campaign with Hi-A Wilmington while Vitters is tearing apart Low-A with Peoria. I would imagine both prospects will be promoted to their next respective levels before much longer. While Moustakas and Vitters have fallen well behind Wieters on the prospect hot list, they both remain potential stars.
Two weeks ago I wrote about the importance of studying on-base percentage when evaluating baseball offenses. I’m constantly surprised at how many people bet on bad offenses to score runs, or bet against teams with good offenses hoping they won’t score much that day. If you missed that article, I hope you’ll check the archives and get up to date! Today I want to talk about pitchers. Most of you already devote some study to the starting pitchers. Are you looking at the right things? Here are the stats I consider to be most important when evaluating starting pitchers: * WHIP: This is simply Walks Plus Hits Allowed per Inning Pitched. Or, “baserunners” allowed by the pitcher per inning. It’s the inverse of what we looked at with on-base percentages for offenses. Teams who get guys on base score runs. Teams who can’t, don’t. Pitchers who keep guys off base win games. Pitchers who can’t, don’t!
Let’s wrap up the first quarter All-Flop team with the pitchers. These aren’t necessarily the guys having the worst seasons, but they’re the ones that I feel failed to live up to expectations by the widest margin. Also, while it may not be very benevolent on my part, I don’t cut any slack for injuries. It may well be a great excuse for poor productivity, but the bottom line is that the player in question still has to be labeled as a big bust. Here’s my five-man rotation with a closer as well. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks: Great pitcher, but useless on the sidelines. One start, four innings, six runs and only a hope that he’ll return sometime next month. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees: Yikes! Three starts, six innings, 23 hits, 23 runs. Needless to say, 0-3, and then some phantom injury. Actually, I’m going to remain convinced the Yankees simply played it smart by DL’ing Wang and it looks like he’s ironed things out and is about ready to make the return trip to NYC. But those three April disasters guaranteed Wang a spot on this list.
We’re at the quarter pole of the 2009 baseball season, so I thought I’d take a look at the first edition of this year’s Anything But All-Star Team. These are the guys who are, for whatever reason, dramatically underachieving. I’ll do the position players today and examine the pitchers tomorrow. Catcher: Geovanny Soto, Cubs. Health problems have been a contributing factor, but the numbers Soto has put up are shocking. I thought it might be reasonable to assume Soto might dip a little from last year’s lofty level. But .198-1-10 is almost incomprehensible. 1B: Derrek Lee, Cubs. Injury issues are camouflaging a serious decline in power production for Lee. Only 11 HR since the end of May 2008. Add in a .230 BA this season and it’s becoming apparent to me the Cubs have a tough decision to make regarding Lee. He’s the veteran who’s been holding down the post for a long time, but with a couple of very live bats capable of playing this position and providing more sock, the Cubs may have to make a very tough call if things don’t turn around soon.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in all of baseball. They’re 28-13 following the Tuesday night win over the Mets, and it certainly looks as though they’ve recovered nicely from the initial shock that they appeared to suffer when the stunning suspension of Manny Ramirez was announced. Juan Pierre obviously has a far different skill set than Manny, but the veteran speedster has done a great job since reclaiming an everyday job. The pitching has been fine, they’re getting solid contributions off the bench, and Dodger fans rightfully have a great deal of confidence in their team right now. There’s that old adage that says if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Nevertheless, I’d like to see Joe Torre make some changes in the batting order for the Dodgers, as I think a little tinkering might result in more production out of the power spots.
If someone had told me that there would be as many seven serious prospects recalled from the minors over just the last handful of days, I’d have bet big money that David Price, Matt Wieters or Clay Buchholz would surely have been on the list. But Price, Wieters and Buchholz are still on the farm. That said, there are some very intriguing names in the newest group of call-ups that I’ll capsulize today. The Diamondbacks are in the process of doing an in-season overhaul, with several prospects getting a chance to strut their stuff with the big club. Gerardo Parra is the best of the bunch. Parra has a real chance to be a star and he’s clearly the best position player prospect in the Arizona chain. Just 22 and with his highest level to date being AA, there are sure to be bumps along the road for Parra. But the basics are all there. He’s got phenomenal plate discipline for someone so young. None of Parra’s tools jump off the page, but he does everything well. Right now, there’s not much power and it remains to be seen if Parra can learn to pull the ball a little more. But he’ll spray line drives, and should hit for a decent average right away. Parra doesn’t have sprinter speed, but can steal bases and he plays a good center field.
Talk about parity. The 2009 season is less than 40 games old, yet we’re already seeing all kinds of congestion in all but one of the game’s six divisions. Just two teams are above .600, while five are languishing below .400. The one early runaway is in the NL West, where the Dodgers already own a five game lead and also have the best overall record at 24-12. But with the bat of Manny Ramirez absent until July, not even LA can be considered a sure thing right now. This weekend’s slate is devoid of true marquee hookups, but thanks to all the tight races, there should be some terrific action to follow. I’d rate the Angels-Rangers set at the headliner. Texas is the biggest surprise team in the majors right now, and both teams are sizzling right now, each having won eight of the last ten. Even though it’s just mid-May, I think this is a huge series for the Rangers. They have a chance to make a bit of a statement that they’re a team to be taken seriously.
Anytime there’s an athlete in his mid-40’s still performing at a high level in a big league team sport, it’s pretty big news. When that player also happens to be among the most respected individuals in his chosen field of endeavor, the story gets even better. Jamie Moyer certainly fit that bill coming into this spring following his huge contributions to the Phillies as they won the 2008 World Series, so it was no surprise when Moyer became the focus of a seemingly endless number of uplifting articles and columns this spring. And make no mistake, it was all deserved. In addition to having a tremendous campaign at the age of 45, Moyer is one of the good guys. There’s no cloud of suspicion surrounding the veteran lefty, he’s always been heavily involved in community efforts and charitable ventures and is basically everything we’d all like to see in a star athlete. Now for the bad news. After an outstanding 2008 performance at the age of 45, Jamie Moyer is getting pounded at the age of 46. The overall numbers following yesterday’s lopsided loss to the Dodgers are really bad. In 35.1 IP, Moyer has allowed 52 hits and 32 runs. His ratios are down from where they normally have been and he’s given up a whopping 11 home runs already. That’s a rough start for anyone, but for a pitcher pushing the age envelope as Moyer is, it’s even more alarming.
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