Take the New York Mets on the moneyline. We are getting great value with the Mets, who have the superior pitcher on the mound Tuesday night. The Mets are 12-3 in Johan Santana’s (9-5, 3.08 ERA) last 15 starts when pitching with four days rest and they are 7-1 in Santana’s last eight starts against an NL Central team. Santana has pitched solid over eight career starts against the Milwaukee Brewers with a 2.96 ERA and the Mets are 16-6 in Santana’s last 22 starts as a favorite. Santana faced the Brewers once this season and he allowed just five hits and no earned runs over seven innings while striking out seven batters. The Brewers are just 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and the Mets are now 5-1 in their last six road games against the Brewers. Take the New York Mets as my MLB free play for Tuesday night. Vernon Croy is ready to crush the books big time Tuesday night so make sure you get on his MLB Smash. The selection is backed by a full in-depth report.
At least it was fun while it lasted. I know there are three months still remaining before the curtain comes down on the 2009 regular season. And a quick look at the current standings in the AL West would certainly lead one to believe there’s a great chance for a dynamite three-team duel for the division title between the Angels, Rangers and Mariners. But I can’t help but believe that this race is already over and that what takes place hereafter is little more than a mere formality. The Angels look like a cinch to pull away and win the division in cakewalk fashion. The Halos were highly vulnerable early thanks to a series of injuries that left them with a very depleted starting rotation. Fact is, I doubt that the starting pitching will be a great source of strength for this team, and with a shaky bullpen, let’s just say that the Angels aren’t exactly built for the playoffs.
The first tap-out of the 2009 season has taken place. The Cleveland Indians basically tossed in the towel on the campaign with the first of what could be a series of deals designed to improve the team for next year. That’s not a bad idea, as the reality is that this team is simply not good enough to contend at this juncture, so it makes sense to start building for the future. The one fly in that ointment is that the architects of whatever game plan the Indians have in mind are the same ones that got them into the muck they’re currently mired in. This makes no sense to me. If I’m the owner of a company that’s been failing and I decide it’s time for a new direction, the last people I want directing the overhaul are the same ones that got the company into the sinkhole to begin with. As for the deal that was consummated over the weekend, the Tribe sent Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for Chris Perez and a player to be named later. It’s not the worst trade of all time for the Indians, but I’ll make the Cardinals a clearcut winner in this swap.
Take the Cleveland Indians on the moneyline. The Cleveland Indians are at home Friday night where they are 7-1 in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record on the road. The Indians are also 6-1 in their last seven home games against a team with a losing overall record. And the Tribe is 14-4 in its last 18 home games after a road trip of seven or more days. The Cincinnati Reds are hitting just .227 as a team on the road this season and they are just 1-7 in Aaron Harang’s (5-7, 3.66) last eight starts as an underdog on the road. The Reds are also just 5-16 in Harang’s last 21 road starts and just 1-6 in Harang’s last seven starts after the Reds score five or more runs in their previous game. Harang has struggled in his last four road starts allowing 18 earned runs overall not including his start against a bad Nationals team. The Reds are just 1-6 in their last seven road games as an underdog and they are just 2-7 in their last nine games after a win. Take the Cleveland Indians as Friday’s free MLB pick. Vernon Croy crushed the books last night with the Cincinnati Reds as a nice dog. Vernon’s 5* MLB IL Game of the Month cashes Friday night, so make sure you get on it now. The play is backed by a 100 percent perfect angle.
Let’s close out the week with a look at potential NL sellers over the next several weeks as the march toward the trade deadline continues. The Nationals are the most obvious sellers. They were eliminated from contention in spring training, and their eyes on the future. The idea for Washington right now is to build the organization. They’ve got some good young pitching with Jordan Zimmerman already showing well against big league hitting, and there’s reason to believe Ross Detwiler has a good future. Stephen Strasburg will hopefully be signed before too much time passes. But if the future arms look good, the bats don’t. This team needs to pick up some good young position talent. Adam Dunn should be offered for the best package of prospects. He’s really their only attractive bargaining chip at this point, and considering how extensive this team’s needs are, they need to explore moving Dunn. The Pirates have already dealt away one of their legit talents in Nate McLouth, but I don’t think they’re done. I think there’s a strong possibility Freddy Sanchez ends the season wearing a different uniform. Sanchez has managed to stay healthy and he would draw interest. Teams looking for bullpen help might contact the Bucs regarding Matt Capps or John Grabow. If the Pirates figure they can realize a profit dealing anyone on their roster, they’re up for a deal.
Take the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline, There is just too much value here tonight to pass on the superior overall team at this low price. The Red Sox are now 10-1 in their last 11 games against the Nationals and they are 8-1 in their last nine road games. John Smoltz makes his first start since June 2, 2008, so he will likely be limited to 85-90 pitches. Regardless, he has dominated the Nationals since 2007 with a 1.77 ERA over seven starts against them. Smoltz pitched well in his six rehab starts in the minors notching a 2.63 ERA. I look for him to have a solid outing against the Nationals line-up tonight. The Red Sox are an AL-best 15-5 in June and their bullpen has pitched well on the road this season with a 2.97 ERA over 109 innings. So if Smoltz does get into trouble, the Sox can lean on the pen. The Nationals are just 1-6 in Jordan Zimmermann’s (2-3, 5.03 ERA) last seven starts and they are just 2-9 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Zimmerman has only lasted an average of 5.6 innings per start over his last three outings. And the Nationals bullpen, although it has pitched better lately, has struggled at home this season with a 5.40 ERA. Take the Boston Red Sox as Thursday’s MLB Free Pick. Vernon Croy went 1-1 overall on the bases yesterday and he looks to crush the books BIG TIME Thursday. Make sure you get on his top MLB picks including his Thursday Afternoon MLB IL Smash that’s backed by a 100 percent perfect angle.
Today’s focus is on potential NL buyers as we head into July. Unlike the AL, things are really wide open in the National League, and I have a feeling that we’ll see a good deal of activity on several fronts. Don’t expect many blockbusters, but my opinion is that several teams will look to add a piece here or there that could make the difference in what looms as a potentially dynamite battle for the Wild Card. The Phillies clearly need a starting pitcher, preferably a righty. I don’t think they’ll be able to land a big fish. One might not be available, and beyond that, the only really enticing prospect available would be OF Dominic Brown. He’s a five-tooler, though, and he’s having a decent campaign in Hi-A. I doubt the Phillies would part with Brown, however, unless it’s for something strong. So they may be setting their sights significantly lower. Brad Penny has been rumored as a possible target. The Mets have no choice but to be buyers if they want to make a push for the playoffs. Their injury situation has forced their hand, and the fact is, they’ll have to pay heavily as everyone else knows they’re under the gun. Making matters worse is that they don’t have a deep system.
Take the Milwaukee Brewers on the moneyline. The Minnesota Twins are just 0-5 in their last five games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Twins are also 0-10 in Nick Blackburn’s (6-2, 3.09 ERA) last 10 road starts against a team with a winning record and they are also just 1-4 in Blackburn’s last five starts as a favorite on the road. The Twins are just 1-8 in their last nine games as a road favorite and they are just 3-11 in Blackburn’s last 14 road starts. The Brewers opponents are hitting just .234 against them at home this season and Braden Looper (5-4, 5.21) should get plenty of run support tonight but even if he does get into trouble this Brewers bullpen has pitched great at home with a solid 2.73 ERA over 105.7 innings. Blackburn got lit up in his only start against the Brewers last season with a 11.56 ERA while giving up four home runs and lasting just 4.7 innings. Grab the value with the Milwaukee Brewers as Wednesday’s MLB free play. Vernon Croy has cashed five of his last six MLB Moneyline Smash plays and he has released his 20 Unit Wednesday Night MLB IL SMASH so make sure you get on this Huge MLB Play now that is backed by a 100 percent perfect angle.
I took a look at some likely AL buyers in yesterday’s column. Today, I’ll turn it around and examine teams more likely to be in sell mode as we hit the mid-season mark of the 2009 campaign. The Baltimore Orioles are clearly getting better. They have a solid corps of offensive talent already on the big club, and the farm system has some outstanding pitching that’s not far away. This team could start making some real noise as early as next season. But I would think the O’s might not mind stockpiling a little more young talent, so if they can find suitors for any of their more dispensable veterans, I think they’d jump at the opportunity. Baltimore doesn’t figure to do anything major, but they could move a veteran backup type to a contender for the right price.
Take the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline. The Royals have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Zack Greinke (8-3, 1.96 ERA) and the Royals have put up five or more runs in seven of their last eight games. The Royals are 0-4 in Greinke’s last four starts but I look for them to get the win tonight on the road since Greinke should have plenty of run support. Russ Ortiz (3-2, 3.60) takes the mound for the Astros and he gave up seven hits and three earned runs including two long balls in his last outing which was against the Texas Rangers. The Astros are just 3-13 in their last 16 games when playing after an off-day and they are just 1-5 in their last six Interleague games when playing a team with a losing record. The Astros are just 8-20 in their last 28 games in Game 1 of a series and the Royals are 5-1 in Greinke’s last six starts in Game 1 of a series. The Astros are just 8-18 in their last 26 games as a underdog of +110 to +150 and they are just 7-16 in their last 23 games against an AL Central opponent. Take the Kansas City Royals as my MLB Free Play for Tuesday night. Vernon Croy crushed the books last night with the Rockies in a ROUT winning 11-1 and he has released his famous 20 Unit MLB IL Oddsmakers Oversight for Tuesday night that has a similar result so get on it now.
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