Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: AL West race; Tuesday free play

At least it was fun while it lasted.

I know there are three months still remaining before the curtain comes down on the 2009 regular season. And a quick look at the current standings in the AL West would certainly lead one to believe there’s a great chance for a dynamite three-team duel for the division title between the Angels, Rangers and Mariners.

But I can’t help but believe that this race is already over and that what takes place hereafter is little more than a mere formality. The Angels look like a cinch to pull away and win the division in cakewalk fashion.

The Halos were highly vulnerable early thanks to a series of injuries that left them with a very depleted starting rotation. Fact is, I doubt that the starting pitching will be a great source of strength for this team, and with a shaky bullpen, let’s just say that the Angels aren’t exactly built for the playoffs.

But I don’t see any way that their three AL West cohorts have the stuff to wrest the title away from the Angels.

The Rangers have gotten unexpectedly good pitching, as Mike Maddux has worked wonders with a very ordinary looking rotation. But he’s not a magician and barring something unforeseen, I have to believe this corps will suffer a second half fade as the innings pile up.

Then there’s the Texas offense, which just isn’t producing at anywhere near the level they did a season ago. A healthy return by Josh Hamilton would certainly help, but the Rangers were an amazing offensive entry last year and they just aren’t going to duplicate those numbers this time around.

While there’s little question that this is a franchise finally heading in the right direction, they’re still a year away from being legitimate contenders.

Seattle is still on the right side of .500, but I can’t see how that continues much longer. Felix Hernandez has arrived as a dominating No. 1, but the rest of the rotation is very questionable. Brandon Morrow should continue to improve, but I don’t expect Jason Vargas or Garrett Olson to keep throwing as well as they have.

Jarrod Washburn is likely to get dealt, which given the state of the Mariners farm system, seems like a very good idea. Erik Bedard will come back from his latest injury at some point, and he’ll probably look good for a few starts before getting hurt again. Bedard has loads of talent, but he just cannot stay healthy.

Even if Seattle maintains a solid rotation, the offense is unlikely to produce enough for them to thrive. The injury to Adrian Beltre is huge. Beltre had really come on following his usual lousy start, and was on 45/137 roll through Sunday’s action. But now it’s off to the operating table for Beltre as he gets his elbow repaired and he won’t be back until September, if at all.

Aside from surprising Russell Branyan, there’s precious little power on this team, and the fact is Branyan has never kept it together for an entire season.

As for the Oakland A’s, they’re just about toast already. Matt Holliday will almost certainly be dealt soon as the A’s continue their latest rebuilding procedure. And with that offense that’s currently in in Oakland, let’s just say they need lots of rebuilding.

So it looks to me like clear sailing for the Angels, although I don’t see them having what it takes to win come October.

Tuesday free play

Mike Hampton is back from his latest stint on the disabled list to make a start for the Astros. Hampton had been pitching pretty well before getting dinged up physically, and there’s no reason he can’t handle the feeble San Diego offense. Josh Banks makes the start here for the Padres, and he simply hits too many bats with fringy stuff. I can see the heart of the Houston order doing some damage here, and I’ll look for the Astros to win this one.