Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: Mets a mess; Thursday freebie

The New York Mets are an absolute mess. Sure, they’re only two games out of the lead in the stunningly mediocre NL East. They’re just one game under .500 at 38-39 despite an unending rash of injuries and an embarrassing display of fundamental blunders that have cost them a handful of wins.

But don’t be misled. This is a team with all kinds of problems, and as it turns out, their presence in a monster market where demands for immediate success could prove to be a gigantic headache for management.

I’m of the opinion that the Mets are in need of a substantial overhaul, which is a viewpoint that’s at odds with most observers, particularly those who may be too close to the scene to really see what’s happening here.

The easy explanation for the mediocrity presently on display is to blame the injuries to key personnel and to also point to glaring mistakes that have taken place on the field. I’ll buy that to a certain extent. Yes, the Mets would likely be atop their division with a healthy roster.

The Luis Castillo dropped pop fly cost them a game. The Daniel Murphy fly ball calamity was brutal. Ryan Church missing third base was a disaster. Mariano Rivera’s first career RBI on a walk courtesy of closer Francisco Rodriguez was a head shaker that snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

But all those events simply provide a convenient smokescreen for what’s really going on here. The fact is, the Mets have a multitude of woes and while they may be a playoff contender at the midway point of the 2009 season, they’re not a very good team and there’s precious little help on the way.

Putting it bluntly, the Mets farm system stinks. AAA Buffalo is hideous. They can’t hit, nor can they pitch. Things aren’t much better at AA Binghamton. There are only two big time prospects in the entire organization at this point. Fernando Martinez is the only consensus Top 50 guy, and he’s already with the big club.

Wilmer Flores is the only other Mets farmhand who might have a really high ceiling, and that’s not at all a unanimous opinion among scouts. Flores is only 17, so there’s loads of room for growth. But he’s shown no power and he has below average speed.

The rest of the organization is littered with prospects who have not lived up to prior billing or simply weren’t that special to begin with. In other words, if the Mets are hoping for help from within, they may as well forget it. The talent just isn’t there.

I’m making a short story long here, so I’ll just get to the point, and point the finger at the real culprit who has to shoulder the blame for the mess that is the Mets right now. That would be Omar Minaya, who I’ve long believed to be the most overrated GM in the business.

For reasons I’ve never comprehended, Minaya has earned a rep as a tremendously sharp operator. I can’t see it. I gave Minaya a pass for the catastrophic Bartolo Colon deal back when Minaya was running the Expos.

The franchise was in shambles and Minaya decided to completely mortgage the future in a desperate attempt to save the team with a quick fix. Under the circumstances, even though it was a really awful trade, there were mitigating conditions.

No such excuses for the succession of bad moves Minaya has made with the Mets. He wildly overpaid for Carlos Beltran, who’s a good player but is not a superstar outside of fantasy baseball. He basically outbid himself for the services of Pedro Martinez, giving him a huge four-year deal when no one else was even considering offering a contract of that length for that kind of money.

He took the bait on Oliver Perez, and then incredibly re-signed him this winter for big bucks, despite the fact that Perez has firmly established himself as nothing more than an erratic .500 pitcher.

There’s plenty more, but I don’t want to turn this piece into a book. But I can’t omit Minaya’s destruction of the farm system, as he’s given away draft picks and has now left himself with almost nothing of note to offer should he be looking to deal this summer.

The only argument I’ll accept on the other side is that Minaya’s hands are tied. He works in a market that won’t tolerate the idea of building properly if that means being a mid-pack entry for a couple of years.

But the truth is that the Mets ARE a mid-pack entry at this juncture and I can’t see much reason for realistic optimism. It’s not just the injuries, nor is it a run of bizarre mistakes that have cost them some games, nor is it the two September collapses of the past two seasons.

The problems for this team go much deeper than that, and until they’re recognized and properly addressed, I can’t see the Mets as anything more than pretenders who continue to fall short of unrealistic expectations.

Thursday free play

There’s not much to cheer about for Padres fans, but the team is getting some outstanding pitching from two unexpected sources. Kevin Correia and Chad Gaudin have been doing some outstanding work lately, and Correia looks for another good start today. Houston starter Wandy Rodriguez won’t be easy for the punchless Padres to solve, but San Diego is at least respectable at home and I give them a decent shot at a win in today’s series finale.