Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: Mariners for real?

I’m on a major roll to start the season. My last eight guaranteed plays, available for purchase on line, have all been winners. To cash in, buy my plays here.

One of my favorite sites is BaseballProspectus.com. There’s not a sharper group of writers and analysts anywhere. I discovered them way back when they were mostly unknown outside baseball’s inner circle, and I was quickly hooked on the wealth of information available there, as well as insightful articles by some really knowledgeable seamheads.

BP is anything but a secret these days, but whereas some outfits lose their edge as they grow, Baseball Prospectus just keeps getting better. The site is not geared toward gambling, but there’s definitely some worthwhile data that will unquestionably aid any handicapper.

Do yourself a favor and get a subscription. Note that this endorsement is not a trade or anything I’m getting paid for. It’s just some solid free advice.

It’s amazing what a difference a positive mindset can make. Exhibit A for this assessment is the Seattle Mariners. They have mostly the same personnel that was on hand for last season’s unmitigated disaster. But make no mistake, this is not the same team as we saw in 2008.

And you don’t have to search far to discover why they may be a vastly improved entry in 2009. The off-the-field changes within the organization are directly related to this team’s impressive start to the year.

It begins with Jake Zduriencik, who’s the new GM. There aren’t many people in the game with an equal reputation, and Zduriencik has wasted no time in changing the points of emphasis on this team.

There’s no way to undo the damage that was done by the prior regime, which was simply over-matched. But what the Mariners did manage to do quickly was to become a team that emphasizes defense, the most overlooked aspect of the game.

The Mariners have a terrific defense and they’re going to save runs with the lineup they’ll be fielding for most games. Better defense means less stress on the pitchers, and it also obviously means less offense to win games. The Mariners won’t out-gun too many teams, but offense doesn’t win games, pitching and defense does.

What’s most impressive to me is the way the team has quickly adapted this philosophy. I’ve seen most of the early Mariners games, and they’re about as crisp as you’ll see. They’re not the most talented team around, but they’re very cohesive.

I’m quite sure my preseason assessment for this team will be way off. The more I see, the more I believe they may be hanging around the playoff chase for quite a while. Sure, they could use another bat or two and we’ll have to see how the back of the rotation and the bullpen hold up. But there’s definite reason for optimism in Seattle right now.

And we know this organization isn’t Minnesota or Florida, meaning that if it’s necessary to go out and spend a few bucks come deadline time this summer, I would fully expect the Mariners to do just that.

I won’t put a great deal of stock into the surprise results from the first couple weeks, either pro or con. The Padres won’t stay good, the Red Sox won’t stay bad and other teams that are either thriving or struggling early will undoubtedly find their proper level. But I’m beginning to believe the Mariners might just emerge as this season’s biggest surprise.