Dave Cokin’s Hardcore Baseball: Soaring Jays to fall?

My only top baseball play won easily on Wednesday as good things continue to happen on the diamond. To cash-in with my winning picks, click here.

The Florida Marlins still own the best record in baseball, but another surprise entry is now hot on their heels. That would be the Toronto Blue Jays, who pulled one out in extras on Wednesday, raising their record to 11-5.

Small sample or not, this is very impressive when noting the fact that the Jays are minus most of their starting rotation, aren’t getting much offense from their two best offensive talents and have a closer who has looked terrible so far.

There have been some immense early contributions from unexpected sources. You can take that in a coupe different directions. The glass half-full viewpoint would be that the Blue Jays are stamping themselves as a possibly huge surprise entry this season.

The pessimistic stance would be that the big numbers being turned in by lesser players is a blip and that the team is due for a big fall. Let’s look at those numbers and try to make a determination as to whether what we’re seeing is reality or just a mirage.

The pitching staff is getting about what’s expected from No. 1 Roy Halladay. He’s as legit an anchor as you’ll find and in terms of reliability; there aren’t many hurlers I’d put ahead of Halladay. The shocker on the staff has been Ricky Romero, who was supposed to be pitching in Las Vegas right now.

Romero’s stock has dropped in a big way since being drafted sixth overall back in 2005. He came into this season with a 16-22 minor league ledger, and nothing that indicated he was going to suddenly shed the “bust” label that had been assigned to him as he slid down the organizational depth chart.

Romero has been lights out so far with three successive impressive outings. But bear in mind that he’s a lefty making his first trip around the league. I’m not saying this run cannot continue, but I lost count long ago of the number of lefties who shine early but quickly lose their luster as opposing hitters figure them out.

The rest of the rotation features erratic lefty David Purcey, unheralded Scott Richmond and yet another southpaw, Brian Tallet. It does not feature anyone named McGowan, Marcum, Litsch or Janssen, as all of those pitchers are hurt.

B.J. Ryan is the money man in the bullpen, but he’s really struggling. On the other hand, the Jays could not ask for more than they’re received from Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Jesse Carlson and Shawn Camp.

On offense, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios are supposed to be the two big horses. Wells has been spotty, and Rios was invisible until busting out with four hits in Wednesday’s win.

But Wells and Rios have been more than picked up by resurgent Aaron Hill, young stars Adam Lind and Travis Snider, surprising Marco Scutaro, and vets Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay and Kevin Millar.

Rod Barajas has been cold, but exploded for two HR Wednesday and even Jose Bautista has been big off the bench.

I would have to lean toward labeling the Blue Jays as a bit of a fluke, but I’ve been wrong before and maybe they’ll fool me and just keep winning a la the 2008 Rays.

I do like the offense more now than I did prior to the season, as it looks like Lind and Snider are legit, and Hill’s return to good health is big. Add in Wells and Rios getting it together as they should, and this is a pretty decent attack.

But I do not like the Toronto pitching at all, and I believe this will be their undoing. Halladay will be outstanding, but I’m not yet sold on Romero and the current back three in the rotation are a major implosion just waiting to happen.

It looks as though my original stance on the Blue Jays was off, as they’re a better team than I thought they would be. But I still can’t see them maintaining anything close to their current clip.

My advice on this team from a betting standpoint is to simply wait for the sell signal and then look to fade them once the staff begins what I feel is an inevitable crash.