Free Picks

NBA  |  Mar 19
Minnesota vs. La Lakers		 La Lakers
-15½-110  at  BOOKM		 > 1d.
The Lakers are 20-13 on the road this season, but a sizzling 30-5 at home. They tear up bad defensive teams and one of the worst in the NBA shows up here in road weary Minnesota. This is the end of a 4-game road trip for the Timberwolves and it’s been a disaster, losing the last two games giving up 152 and 120 points. They’ve allowed over 100 points in 10 straight games. Minnesota is 5-30 on the road and has already lost to LA by double digits the last time they met. With the Lakers still in the hunt for the top record in the NBA and the T-Wolves already giving up on the season, this will be another blowout. Play the LA Lakers.

NBA  |  Mar 18
New Orleans vs. Denver		 Total
214 un-110  at  BOOKM		 Started
Denver is 3-2 under the total the last five games, and just held Washington to 87 points the last game. It sailed under by 28 points. After facing Golden State last night, the injury-riddled Hornets aren’t going to want to run with the Nuggets in the thin, mountain air in Denver. Look for a slower paced game than oddsmakers expect, play the Nuggets/Hornets Under the total.

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Texas El Paso vs. Butler		 Texas El Paso
+2½-110  at  BOOKM		 Started
Free Play for 3/18/10
1 Unit on UTEP +2.5
The Miners are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Bulldogs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. UTEP is also an outstanding 7-1 ATS versus teams making 45% or more of their shots after 15 or more games into the season this season, winning by 10.8 points on average in these spots. This just goes to show you that shooting a high percentage against UTEP isn’t enough in most cases. Butler is a good team, but I just think UTEP is a little more athletic and a little better. We’ll take the points.

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Texas El Paso vs. Butler		 Texas El Paso
+2½-110  at  BOOKM		 Started
FREE PLAY
1 Unit on UTEP Miners +2.5
I believe UTEP is the better team from the better conference, and losing the C-USA tourney title game to Houston is going to have the Miners really fired up for this one. I like the fact that the Miners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. I also like the fact that the Bulldogs are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Just shooting the ball well against UTEP isn’t enough. In fact, UTEP is 7-1 ATS versus good shooting teams, making 45% or more of their shots, after 15+ games this season, winning these games by an average score of 76.6 to 65.8. Plus, UTEP is 13-3 ATS when playing away from home versus poor pressure defensive teams, forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game, over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 75.7 to 68.9. If Butler isn’t able to force UTEP into a lot of mistakes, which is not the defensive personality of the Bulldogs, the Miners will have an excellent opportunity to win this game, which I think they will. Take the points.

-=TOP PLAY=-

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Northern Iowa vs. UNLV		 UNLV
-1-110  at  BETUS		 Started

First, I am on serious rolls in both the NCAA and NBA hardwoods. In CBB, 15* Conference Games of the Month ended at 20-12 ATS for 64% ATs winners. 25* Conference Games of the Year ended 3-1-1 ATS. 10 Titan plays have hit 23-11 ATS L33 releases for 68% ATS winners. This is not an usual year, however, and we are looking forward to another highly profitable NCAA/NIT Tournament.

NBA is even better than the NCAA hitting 80% winners in the Month of March.

The 8/9 matchups are always very competitive games and very hard to predict consistently. The sports handicapping model shows a 5* graded play on UNLV. Supporting this graded play is a series of game dependent angles based on the model projections. Here is just one, but under scores the theme that UNLV will be able to run and shooting above 40%. UNLV is 8-4 ATS this season, 24-9 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 67-39 ATS since 1997 when shooting between 40 and 46%. UNLV HC Kruger is also very good at preparing his team for an anticipated close game. Note that he is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) when the line is +3 to -3; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games in all games he has coached. UNLV is also in solid roles based on their recent schedule and results. UNLV is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after playing a game as favorite this season.

Based on the projections I also like a 3* amount on the first half line. There is no doubt in my mind that UNLV will want to put as much pressure on the Ni defense as possible. By looking run on every possible transition fatigue will become a factor and NI defenders will get out of position allowing for high percentage shots by UNLV. NI did very well in conference play and statistically has a very strong defense. The emphasis is on the word statistically as they will have enormous difficulty defending the quickness and athleticism of the Rebels. Here is a first half system that under scores these points and more. It has gone 50-20 ATS for 71.4% winners since 1997. Play against neutral court teams versus the 1st half line after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games facing an opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Take UNLV.

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
San Diego State vs. Tennessee		 Tennessee
-3-110  at  BODOG		 Started
HOT HOT HOT! 7-0 overall since Monday including a 3-0 day yesterday! Three huge Premium winners today including 2 NCAA and one NBA play. Buy Craig’s package for only $99 for all of March Madness and save over 50% today!

708 Tennessee -3.5: Two teams coming off very different conference tourney experiences. TENN needs to put a blowout to UK behind them whereas SDS is looking to keep their Championship form for one more week at least. The difference in this one is the taller more athletic TENN guards. Prince, Mays and Hopson can really play and even though they did not play well verse UK they will bounce back. Hopson for us will be the difference as he will go both inside and outside scoring at least 20. Chism also will play very well as he has had a ton of Tourney experience which is so valuable. Close early but late TENN is just too much.

NCAA-B  |  Mar 19
Siena vs. Purdue		 Purdue
-4-105  at  BODOG		 > 16h.
When the matchups came out on Sunday night, one team that stood out to me was Siena. This is a very veteran team that has won in the tournament before. In 2008, the Saints defeated Vanderbilt by 21 points before losing to Villanova. Last year, they defeated Ohio St. in overtime before falling to Louisville. My opinion changed once the lines came out a few hours later however. I expected Siena to be catching at least eight points against Purdue but the number came out anywhere between 3.5 and 4.5 depending on the shop. As of Tuesday morning, the number sits at 4 pretty much across the board and this is a huge overreaction to the Purdue situation. The Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel for the season back on February 24th against Minnesota and he is no doubt a huge loss which likely takes Purdue out of making any sort of big run during this tournament. There was talk of a possible number one tournament seed before Hummel went down and his absence was definitely taken into consideration when these seedings were announced. It did not help that the Boilermakers lost to Minnesota by 27 points in the Big Ten Tournament but I still think the seeding is a spot lower than it should be. This is still a very solid team that returned four other starters from last season and it will be up to center/forward JaJuan Johnson to pick up the slack in the post. The frontcourt was thin to begin with and it is even thinner now but the matchup here should not matter much. The backcourt is loaded and this time of year, a solid backcourt is key to making a tournament run. E’Twaun Moore is the only double-digit scorer up top but the depth of the backcourt more than makes up for the lack of another viable scorer. Purdue has a 1.28 assist/turnover ratio and the top three guards are all hitting better than 72 percent from the free throw line, another huge advantage. Taking nothing away from what Siena did this season, but it is lucky to be here. It won in overtime over Fairfield in the MAAC Championship thanks to a big second half comeback and after two years of NCAA Tournament upsets, it will not be sneaking up on anyone. The Saints defeated no other notable team this season as it went 0-4 against other tournament teams. Siena is once again going to be a public choice but the value clearly lies on the favorite. 3* Purdue Boilermakers

Matt had a FANTASTIC CBB regular season, POTENT conference tournaments and a SOLID start to the early NIT and CBI tournaments! He went 7-4-1 ATS in the first round last year in the NCAA Tournament and is expecting bigger and better this year! His 10* Reports are 40-22-4 ATS (64.5%) YTD and his 10* 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR is Friday! The 10* TOP Play Onslaught continues! Guaranteed!

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Wake Forest vs. Texas		 Texas
-5-105  at  BODOG		 Started

Texas -5 versus Wake Forest


Thursday NCAAA Tourney Round 1


I watched Texas play twice last week in Kansas City. They have a good team. Although I continue to scratch my head everytime I see this team that is LOADED with talent and they continue to flater, I think they have the horses both at guard and in the paint with Pittman to get over on an inconsistent Wake team who was destroyed my Miami in the ACC tourney in the first round as a favorite. Wake has dropped by 5 out of 6 and really I was surprised they made the tourney to be honest. Texas has the offense to outpace Wake here, and if they play to 90% of their potential with their bench and James plays well at guard, this should be an 8-10 point win by Texas, then an early exit in round 2 for them.


FREE PLAY on Texas.


TOP PLAY ALERT on Thursday on a 2 game, 3 Unit BLOWOUT NCAA Tourney Acrd. 20-9-2 ATS run with bonus Plays and RED HOT guys with TOP PLAYS, 9-3 run with multiunit plays!

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Northern Iowa vs. UNLV		 Northern Iowa
+1-110  at  BETUS		 Started
Free Play for March 18, 2010
1 Unit on Northern Iowa +1
Bottom Line: Good defense and experience wins a lot of games this time of year and the Northern Iowa Panthers have been blessed with the good fortune of having both on their side. The Panthers allow a ridiculous 54.3 ppg. I expect this suffocating defense to be the difference. Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS in road games versus good teams, outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game, after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 63.6 to 58.9. I also like the fact that N. Iowa is 7-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, winning these games by an average score of 63.1 to 55.3. We’ll take the Panthers.

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Florida vs. BYU		 Total
147½ un-110  at  BETUS		 Started
Sometimes you have to break a team down as to how they do playing very good teams. The Gators have proven one thing, and that is defense is their calling card vs. the top teams. Their last five games vs. teams in the dance have shown none to get over the 140 total points scored mark. The average points scored has been 132.4 ppg in the five. It has been their calling card for years, resulting in a 37-16 mark to the UNDER vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. The Gators have also been 18-6 to the UNDER in their last 24 out-of conference games. While BYU has proven it can score in the up-tempo Mountain West, they only played one non-conference game vs. an NCAA Tournament bound team, and were held to a very telling season-low 61 points. I’m going with the UNDER in this one.

NCAA-B  |  Mar 19
Louisville vs. California		 California
0-110  at  BETUS		 > 23h.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #838 Take California over Louisville (Friday 9:55 pm CBS) California played a brutal schedule to open the season but they have finished strong winning six of their last seven games. The PAC-10 was bad this year but Cal has talent, experience, size, and coaching. Louisville had a major drop-off in talent this year and if they do not make shots from the arc, I see them losing this game by double-digits. The Cardinals shot under 45% this season from the field. As good of a coach as Rick Pitino is, Mike Montgomery is no slouch either. Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games. California is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Don’t forget to sign-up for Doc’s NCAA Tournament Game of the Year which goes on Friday!

-=TOP PLAY=-

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Texas El Paso vs. Butler		 Total
130 ov-110  at  SIA		 Started
10*

few jr o facts

<> Horizon league champ Butler puts up a 70 spot last game and there “O” is heating up , Butler has put up a 70 spot 5 out of the last 6 games. Both teams rank very high in the offensive field goal % … {Top 75} and the Bulldogs are a powerful 10-2 Over on a neurtral site. The Miners know they need to get out and run to beat the Bulldogs. Over is 36-15 Ats when the Miners are listed as a dog! We capped this baby hard and have this in the 140’s

<>JR O HAMMER BOMB= OVER UTEP / BUTLER A LATE AFTERNOON WINNER

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Montana vs. New Mexico		 New Mexico
-9-110  at  SIA		 5min.
ON THURSDAY WE ROCK THE HOUSE WITH A HUGE NCAAB, CUTTING EDGE TOURNAMENT SYSTEM CARD. IF YOU LIKED THE 6* WEDNESDAY WINNER ON PACIFIC YOU WILL LOVE THE THURSDAY CARD $$$

On Thursday the Free play is on New Mexico. Game 734 at 9:50 eastern. The Lobos fit a nice system here that plays on certain teams off a favored loss in conference play vs an opponent off a dog win in conference tourney play. New Mexico is a solid 14-1 vs non conference teams and 9-3 ats off a conference loss. Tonight they play a Montana team that is off a big win on the road in their conference Championship to earn a bid. Teams coming off such a big win usually fall flat in the Tournament, especially vs teams who lost as a favorite. Look for the Lobos to send Montana home with a solid win and cover. On Thursday I have 4 solid NCAAB Plays 2 at night and 2 in the day, all in Big NCAAB Tournament systems, 2 of the plays are from systems that cash over 95% of the time. We nailed another big 6* play on Pacific on Wednesday and are 3-0 in Tournament action thus far. Jump on as we tear up the tournament on Thursday. For the free play take New Mexico. RV

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Wake Forest vs. Texas		 Texas
-5-110  at  SPBOOK		 Started
Widow’s CBB Free Pick Thursday:

1* on Texas -5

Wake Forest lost 5 of their last 6 games overall, and they have no momentum heading into the Big Dance. The Demon Deacons capped off their season with an ugly 62-83 loss to Miami (Florida) in the ACC Tournament. Yes, Texas has faced their fair share of struggles of late, but at least they’ve been competitive. Remember, this Longhorns’ team was once ranked as the #1 team in the country earlier this season. Texas still has a ton of talent, and we love their chances of advancing to the second round with a blowout win over Wake Forest in their opener. In three seasons with the team, Demon Deacons’ coach Dino Gaudio has yet to register a postseason victory (in the conference tournament or NCAA Tournament). He just cannot get it done in the postseason. But the struggles extend past Gaudio’s tenure. Wake Forest is 15-37 ATS (-25.7 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997. Worse yet, the Demon Deacons are 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in NCAA tournament games since 1997. Texas gets their act together in the first round and plays up to their potential against an inferior team. Take the Longhorns and lay the points.

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NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Montana vs. New Mexico		 New Mexico
-8½-110  at  BOOKM		 5min.
Montana is 22-9 this year. Guard Anthony Johnson scores 19.6 points a game while shooting 46.4% from behind the arc. Center Brian Quale scores 9.7 points and 6.9 rebounds a game. Guard Ryan Staudacher scores 8.6 points a game. Guard Will Cherry scores 8.3 points a game. The Grizzlies score 70 points a game. Montana is 3-8 ATS their last 11 games as underdogs of 7.0 to 12.5 points. New Mexico is 29-4 this year. Guard Darington Hopson scores 16.2 points and 9.2 rebounds a game. Forward Ramon Martinez scores 13.8 points and 6 rebounds a game. Guard Dairese Gary scores 12.7 points a game. The Lobos score 76.6 points a game. New Mexico is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games off a straight up loss and they are 35-17-2 ATS their last 54 Non-Conference games. PLAY ON NEW MEXICO -

NCAA-B  |  Mar 19
Utah State vs. Texas A&M		 Utah State
+3-110  at  BETUS		 > 18h.
Taking these Aggies as my FREE PLAY. Don’t get down on Utah State since they didn’t win the WAC Conference Tourney. This team did run off 17 straight wins before that loss. They don’t turn the ball over and shoot the ball well.

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Texas El Paso vs. Butler		 Texas El Paso
+2½-110  at  BETUS		 Started
Free Play on UTEP MINERS

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Ohio vs. Georgetown		 Georgetown
-13-110  at  BODOG		 Started
Martin’s Thursday Free Pick:

1 Unit on Georgetown -13

Ohio’s miracle run comes to an end in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Georgetown saved their best basketball for last, making it all the way to the Big East Championship game, losing by just 2 points to WVU on a game-winner by De’Sean Butler. Georgetown is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games, and 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Ohio is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Big East conference. Ohio has really struggled shooting the ball this season, hitting just 40.3% of their shots on the road this year. Georgetown is an excellent defensive team, and will make life very difficult for the Bobcats. Georgetown gives up just 64.6 points/game and 40.4% shooting on the road this year. The Hoyas are very efficient on the offensive end as well, scoring 73.2 points/game on 49.8% shooting. I see no way the Hoyas don’t win this game by at least 15 points Thursday.

*67-52 College Leagues Overall Plays Run Profiting +1085 Units!* Doing the math, my $1,000/game bettors are up $10,850! I have 18 NCAA Tournament Picks for $79.99 available at my home page, all coming in the opening round Thursday & Friday! All selections are rated 5 Units, 4 Units or 3 Units, with 5 being the strongest! I am so confident in these 18 picks that I GUARANTEE YOU WIN or I’ll give you the REST OF MY CBB PICKS IN 2010 FOR FREE!

NCAA-B  |  Mar 18
Texas El Paso vs. Butler		 Butler
-2-110  at  BODOG		 Started
Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Butler -2

The Butler Bulldogs are determined to make some noise in the Big Dance this year. This is a veteran group with all 5 starters back from last year’s team that suffered a first-round exit. Butler enters this game with the nation’s longest winning streak at 20 games. Butler went 28-4 this season and they didn’t do all of their damage in the Horizon League. The Bulldogs stepped out of conference and beat Ohio State and Xavier earlier this season, two teams that are seeded highly in the NCAA Tournament. Butler is one of the best defensive teams in the country, giving up just 60.0 PPG and 41.4% shooting. Their defense, along with their experience, gives the Bulldogs a huge edge over UTEP in my opinion.

This play also falls under a system that is 45-15 (75%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against neutral court teams (UTEP) – a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. Butler is the better defensive team, and they have been on a mission since the start of their 20-game winning streak. Take the Bulldogs over UTEP.

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