Red Sox and Angels Series Preview

This post was written by Sportsbook.com on October 8, 2009
Posted Under: General

ALDS logoThe Red Sox and Angles will be the last teams to start up their divisional series, which has given bettors at least an extra day to prepare for all the exciting wagering opportunities available.

Right now, you can bet on each game, side and total, the series, including exact game props, plus numerous other player and team options at Sportsbook.com. Read on for a preview of the Boston-Los Angeles series, then head over to the LIVE ODDS page to analyze the options.

As if the postseason isn’t enough motivation, the Los Angeles Angels have a score to settle. The Angels had the second best record in the American League and that accomplishment means nothings to oddsmakers.

The Halos are underdogs to Boston, which is not surprising considering the history – in the last five years, the Angels have one win in 10 meetings with the Red Sox in the postseason. This can’t even be described as a rivalry since the outcomes have been so one-sided.

How will this year be any different than the last three times? Los Angeles feels better equipped offensively this time around. Only the Yankees scored more runs than the Angels in baseball this season.

LA’s 5.5 runs per game and its boost in power (183 home runs) this season suggests the Angels are less likely to be stymied like they were in the past when they averaged just 2.9 runs per game through last 10 postseason conflicts with the Sox.

The Angels also believe their starting pitching is every bit as good as Boston’s, maybe better. John Lackey and Jered Weaver have experience and generally pitch well at home. When they travel to Boston, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders, who have been throwing extremely well of late, could make life tough on Red Sox hitters.

In theory, hat all sounds terrific, but there’s one problem, the Angels bullpen. Though Los Angeles has a higher save percentage than Boston (73 to 69 percent), nobody is going to take the Halos pen over the BoSox.

LA closer Brian Fuentes dipped under an ERA of four (3.93) for the first time this season only recently. According to ESPN senior editor Dave Schoenfield, only three teams since 1969 have won the World Series with a closer who had ERA greater than three. The Angels are 11th in bullpen ERA compared to Boston’s second place finish in the American League.

The club with the better bullpen ERA wins 58.9 percent of the time (33-23) in divisional series And history shows that teams with inferior closer, but better overall record, are just 26-28 in the division series. Boston has John Papelbon (1.85 ERA) as its closer.

Add up the numbers and you can see why the Angels are underdogs in the ALDS. For Los Angeles to win they have to score runs and hope the bullpen can shutdown the Boston bats. If the Red Sox starters once again limit L.A. in the run column, it will be like watching TV Land, where you’ve seen the show before.

Key Numbers:

AL Offensive Categories
Red Sox Rank
Angels Rank
Runs scored
3rd
2nd
Home runs
3rd
8th
Slugging percentage
2nd
4th
Walks
2nd
7th
On-base percentage
2nd
3rd
AL Defensive Categories
ERA
7th
9th
Bullpen ERA
2nd
11th
Strikeouts
2nd
9th
Walks
6th
5th
On-base percentage
8th
10th
Putouts
8th
5th
Errors
3rd
4th

  • Los Angeles won the season series 5-4, including 4-2 at the Big A.
  • John Lackey is living off history as big game pitcher. In his rookie season, “Big John” got the call in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series. He gave up only one earned run on four hits through five innings in the Angels’ 4-1 World Series clinching victory over the Giants.
  • Jon Lester allowed one run in 14 innings last October against the Halos. The lefty and his teammates are 35-12 in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
  • Though several factors are in the Red Sox favor, they are desultory 3-15 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Red Sox -135, Angels +115

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