So who is ready to win the World Series? Well, relax , folks, it is only the end of June and baseball is a marathon. Patience and consistency are keys to being the best in baseball, the same two qualities that are necessary in the world of sports wagering.
After all, it is not the hot teams in May and June that win the World Series, it is the team hottest in October. The 2002 and 2003 Angels and Marlins were great examples, along with the 2004 Red Sox. All stumbled in the first half of the season before catching fire down the stretch and winning the World Series.
At the end of the first month of the 2002 season, Anaheim was 11-14 and no one was talking about them as challengers in October. A year later, on June 1, 2003, the Florida Marlins were 26-32, looking up at the Braves, Phillies and Expos in the NL East. They were just one-game out of last place in the division and 100-to-1 shots to win the World Series. In October, they did.
Many times a roster a team currently has will not be the one they will be using in October, or even July. Managers are still tinkering with lineups, or practicing patience with slumping players hoping they will bust out of it. General managers are reviewing team needs and plotting trades to upgrade positions and even minor leaguers can come up to help out. Read More…
Take the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline.
We are actually getting great value here tonight with the Cubs. Chicago has the superior pitcher on the mound with Ryan Dempster (4-5, 4.09 ERA) up against Milwaukee’s Seth McClung (3-1, 3.55 ERA), who was hit hard in his only start this season (6.75 ERA over just four innings).
Dempster has owned the Brewers over his career with a 9-2 record and a 3.28 ERA over 15 starts against them. Furthermore, the Cubs are 5-1 in Dempster’s last six home starts against a team with a winning record.
The Cubs have won four straight at home and the Brewers are just 0-6 in their last six road games against a team with a winning record above .600 at home. The Brewers are just 3-10 in their last 14 games against a right hand starter and they are also just 2-5 in their last seven road games as a dog of +110 to +150.
Take the Chicago Cubs as my MLB free play for Thursday night.
Vernon Croy crushed the books yesterday with the Atlanta Braves in a 11-1 ROUT over the Phillies. Vernon has his MLB Smash for Thursday night cashing hands down backed by a 90 percent angle so get on it now. Read More…
The New York Mets are an absolute mess. Sure, they’re only two games out of the lead in the stunningly mediocre NL East. They’re just one game under .500 at 38-39 despite an unending rash of injuries and an embarrassing display of fundamental blunders that have cost them a handful of wins.
But don’t be misled. This is a team with all kinds of problems, and as it turns out, their presence in a monster market where demands for immediate success could prove to be a gigantic headache for management.
I’m of the opinion that the Mets are in need of a substantial overhaul, which is a viewpoint that’s at odds with most observers, particularly those who may be too close to the scene to really see what’s happening here.
The easy explanation for the mediocrity presently on display is to blame the injuries to key personnel and to also point to glaring mistakes that have taken place on the field. I’ll buy that to a certain extent. Yes, the Mets would likely be atop their division with a healthy roster. Read More…
Last week Cubs closer Kevin Gregg served up a two-run, walk-off home run to pinch-hitter Ryan Raburn in a 5-4 loss to Detroit. Lou Piniella’s answers were brief: “Look, one-run leads on the road,” he said. “Not the easiest thing in the world.”
The Cubs started 3-10 in one-run games on the road. Unreliable relief pitching can prevent hot streaks and sap a team’s confidence. In addition, if a bullpen has to be used more it could potentially tax others in the pen for the next game or two. That is a problem the Washington Nationals have had, with a league-high in blown saves.
Bullpens are an important part of baseball wagering these days. Expansion over the last 16 years has diluted the pool of quality starters. Many teams look for a fourth or fifth starter just to go five innings and hope for as little damage as possible. All of which makes the guys coming in from the pen for the final four innings of those games even more important.
Cub starting pitchers have had a sizzling 2.69 ERA in June, far and away the best in the National League, but have a .500 record. Their team ERA was one of the best in baseball, tops in quality starters, but one of the worst in saves in the NL. The Cleveland Indians have had a frustrating 2009 season, bogged down by what has been an awful relief staff. Read More…
I can hardly believe I’m saying this, but the Pittsburgh Pirates may actually have made a smart deal on Tuesday. The Bucs completed a four-player swap with the Washington Nationals, and for once the eternally woeful Pirates have a chance to win a deal.
Let’s be clear that the key player in the trade, Lastings Milledge, is anything but a sure thing. He’s had maturity issues at every stop and he’s not exactly the most fundamentally sound player you’ll ever see. But Milledge also has all kinds of talent, and if his mind ever catches up to his body, the Bucs may have themselves a star.
Milledge appeared ready to have a breakout 2009 off the way he wrapped up last season. But he got off to a terrible start, ended up getting sent down by the Nats, and then got hurt.
The downside to Milledge is substantial. Whatever lessons he should have learned by this time have seemingly gone unheeded, and I think that explains why the Nationals were happy to sell him cheap. But there is at least a chance for Milledge to realize what is some pretty vast potential. Read More…
Take the New York Mets on the moneyline. We are getting great value with the Mets, who have the superior pitcher on the mound Tuesday night.
The Mets are 12-3 in Johan Santana’s (9-5, 3.08 ERA) last 15 starts when pitching with four days rest and they are 7-1 in Santana’s last eight starts against an NL Central team.
Santana has pitched solid over eight career starts against the Milwaukee Brewers with a 2.96 ERA and the Mets are 16-6 in Santana’s last 22 starts as a favorite.
Santana faced the Brewers once this season and he allowed just five hits and no earned runs over seven innings while striking out seven batters.
The Brewers are just 0-4 in their last four games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and the Mets are now 5-1 in their last six road games against the Brewers.
Take the New York Mets as my MLB free play for Tuesday night.
Vernon Croy is ready to crush the books big time Tuesday night so make sure you get on his MLB Smash. The selection is backed by a full in-depth report. Read More…
At least it was fun while it lasted.
I know there are three months still remaining before the curtain comes down on the 2009 regular season. And a quick look at the current standings in the AL West would certainly lead one to believe there’s a great chance for a dynamite three-team duel for the division title between the Angels, Rangers and Mariners.
But I can’t help but believe that this race is already over and that what takes place hereafter is little more than a mere formality. The Angels look like a cinch to pull away and win the division in cakewalk fashion.
The Halos were highly vulnerable early thanks to a series of injuries that left them with a very depleted starting rotation. Fact is, I doubt that the starting pitching will be a great source of strength for this team, and with a shaky bullpen, let’s just say that the Angels aren’t exactly built for the playoffs. Read More…
The first tap-out of the 2009 season has taken place. The Cleveland Indians basically tossed in the towel on the campaign with the first of what could be a series of deals designed to improve the team for next year.
That’s not a bad idea, as the reality is that this team is simply not good enough to contend at this juncture, so it makes sense to start building for the future.
The one fly in that ointment is that the architects of whatever game plan the Indians have in mind are the same ones that got them into the muck they’re currently mired in.
This makes no sense to me. If I’m the owner of a company that’s been failing and I decide it’s time for a new direction, the last people I want directing the overhaul are the same ones that got the company into the sinkhole to begin with.
As for the deal that was consummated over the weekend, the Tribe sent Mark DeRosa to St. Louis for Chris Perez and a player to be named later. It’s not the worst trade of all time for the Indians, but I’ll make the Cardinals a clearcut winner in this swap. Read More…
Take the Cleveland Indians on the moneyline.
The Cleveland Indians are at home Friday night where they are 7-1 in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record on the road.
The Indians are also 6-1 in their last seven home games against a team with a losing overall record. And the Tribe is 14-4 in its last 18 home games after a road trip of seven or more days.
The Cincinnati Reds are hitting just .227 as a team on the road this season and they are just 1-7 in Aaron Harang’s (5-7, 3.66) last eight starts as an underdog on the road.
The Reds are also just 5-16 in Harang’s last 21 road starts and just 1-6 in Harang’s last seven starts after the Reds score five or more runs in their previous game.
Harang has struggled in his last four road starts allowing 18 earned runs overall not including his start against a bad Nationals team.
The Reds are just 1-6 in their last seven road games as an underdog and they are just 2-7 in their last nine games after a win.
Take the Cleveland Indians as Friday’s free MLB pick.
Vernon Croy crushed the books last night with the Cincinnati Reds as a nice dog. Vernon’s 5* MLB IL Game of the Month cashes Friday night, so make sure you get on it now. The play is backed by a 100 percent perfect angle. Read More…
Let’s close out the week with a look at potential NL sellers over the next several weeks as the march toward the trade deadline continues.
The Nationals are the most obvious sellers. They were eliminated from contention in spring training, and their eyes on the future. The idea for Washington right now is to build the organization.
They’ve got some good young pitching with Jordan Zimmerman already showing well against big league hitting, and there’s reason to believe Ross Detwiler has a good future. Stephen Strasburg will hopefully be signed before too much time passes.
But if the future arms look good, the bats don’t. This team needs to pick up some good young position talent. Adam Dunn should be offered for the best package of prospects. He’s really their only attractive bargaining chip at this point, and considering how extensive this team’s needs are, they need to explore moving Dunn.
The Pirates have already dealt away one of their legit talents in Nate McLouth, but I don’t think they’re done. I think there’s a strong possibility Freddy Sanchez ends the season wearing a different uniform. Sanchez has managed to stay healthy and he would draw interest.
Teams looking for bullpen help might contact the Bucs regarding Matt Capps or John Grabow. If the Pirates figure they can realize a profit dealing anyone on their roster, they’re up for a deal. Read More…
